Nor’Easter #4 Update
Can you believe that we are now going into the fourth (4th) Nor’Easter of the winter?
Here is the latest info account to SNJ Today’s NorEasterNick
Early Tuesday Morning to Late Wednesday Evening
On-shore flow (E/NE) begins tonight and won’t shift direction until later Wednesday. Look for gusts 45mph + at the coast, 35mph+ on the mainland, decreasing the farther west you drive. There may be a period where they “relax” as the secondary low (which ultimately will be the stronger one) forms. Strongest I think will be early to mid day Wednesday.
Here’s where track is key. I think it’s a mix to rain to snow situation with most of the snow holding off until late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Still working the details out on that one. The second low will bring the snow. So it’s the timing and track of that one we are watching. Definitely think there will be mixing concerns, and mainly south of the Buena area.
Tidal flooding appears to be imminent. I believe we will see several rounds of it because of the wind direction being out of the E/NE. This will help fill the back bays up and prevent them from draining all the way. I would prepare for moderate flooding tomorrow morning, evening and Wednesday morning. Prepare for moderate but hope for minor. I rather over prepare because the second to last storm caught us off guard a little bit. Point blank, if you flooded in the past 3 storms, you will flood with this one. No, not a Sandy or “Jonas” situation but definitely an inconvenience to say the least.
Maps are being shared depicting model outputs. Throw them out. Why? They are based on a 10:1 ratio. That’s the kind of snowfall we see in JANUARY and early FEBRUARY. Not late March. There are lots of obstacles to overcome. March climo, sun angle, marginal surface temps etc. Most of the snow looks to fall Wednesday? Unless the storm EXPLODES over us, I think it will be hard to see over 6″ of snow for our area. My initial thoughts are 3-6″ on the mainland west of the parkway. A coating to a couple inches at the coast? Our map will be out later. Most of the snow will be seen through interior South Jersey into SE PA I believe.
>Moderate impact storm beginning early Tuesday ending late Wednesday
>Tidal Flooding biggest concern beginning tomorrow morning lasting several tide cycles.
>Higher end Minor/ Low end Moderate flooding becoming more likely.
>Winds could exceed 45mph at the coast
>3-6″ of snow on the mainland west of the parkway, less at the coast