Nor’easter Threat Continues as Coastal Flooding And 45 MPH Winds Target Jersey Shore
The rough weather we have been watching along the Jersey Shore isn’t going away just yet, and now all eyes are turning toward what could happen this weekend.
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly released its latest briefing Wednesday afternoon, September 23, with an updated look at the coastal flooding, strong winds and dangerous ocean conditions impacting our area.
Nor’easter Threat Continues as Coastal Flooding And 45 MPH Winds Target Jersey Shore
There is some good news in the latest update. Forecasters have slightly lowered the expected wind speeds through Thursday. But that doesn’t mean we are out of the woods.
In fact, the biggest question is now what happens Friday and into the weekend as a new low-pressure system develops off the East Coast.
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For those of us here at the Jersey Shore, coastal flooding continues to be one of the biggest concerns.
The National Weather Service is expecting minor to moderate coastal flooding through at least Friday evening, and it could continue into the weekend.
This isn’t just some water coming over the curb, either.
Forecasters say widespread roadway flooding is possible in coastal and bayside communities, with some roads potentially becoming impassable. There is also the possibility of damage to vulnerable structures.
Multiple rounds of tidal flooding are expected this week, meaning we could see water return during several high-tide cycles rather than dealing with just one flooding event.
Winds Could Gust to 45 MPH
The wind will also remain noticeable along the coast.
Persistent northeast winds are expected through at least Thursday, with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware.
Gusts could reach 45 mph, while inland areas could see gusts around 35 mph.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect along the Atlantic coast through 8 p.m. Thursday.
Out on the ocean, conditions will be much worse.
Gale-force winds are expected across the coastal waters, with waves building to an impressive 8 to 15 feet.
That persistent northeast wind pushing water toward the coastline is also contributing to the flooding and rough surf we’re seeing.
The National Weather Service has a high risk of rip currents through Saturday, along with dangerous surf. Significant beach erosion is considered likely, and some dune erosion is also possible.
What About the Nor’easter This Weekend?
This is where things get interesting.
We’ve been watching the possibility of a nor’easter developing for several days, but there is still a lot we don’t know about exactly what this storm will do.
The National Weather Service says confidence in the forecast is relatively high through Thursday. After that, confidence starts dropping.
A low-pressure system is expected to develop offshore, and where that low ultimately tracks will make a huge difference for New Jersey.
If the storm stays closer to the coast, the National Weather Service says significant coastal and marine impacts could continue into the weekend. Rain and wind could also push farther inland.
If the storm tracks farther east and out to sea, the impacts would be much more concentrated along the coast. We could still see lingering tidal flooding, especially around the back bays, along with high seas and gusty winds over the ocean.
So, at least right now, it would be too early to say that New Jersey is definitely getting hit by a major nor’easter this weekend.
What we can say is that the ingredients are there for an unsettled several days at the Jersey Shore, and the exact track of this developing storm is going to determine just how long these conditions stick around.